Media Advisory

Jakarta, 10 Desember 2020

Ekspor Batubara Menurun, Saatnya Transisi Energi

Negara tujuan ekspor batubara Indonesia di Asia mulai beralih menggunakan energi terbarukan. Menurut riset Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR) industri batubara akan mengalami kerugian. Transisi energi menjadi satu-satunya jalan untuk mempersiapkan penurunan ekspor ke Asia.

Menurut Spesialis Data dan Informasi IESR, Deon Aprinaldo, negara tujuan ekspor batu bara seperti Cina dan Jepang mulai berkomitmen pada zero carbon mulai 2025 hingga 2050. Kebijakan ini secara tidak langsung mempengaruhi permintaan ekspor batu bara Indonesia.

“Kecenderungan permintaan negara-negara itu menurun, sedangkan Jepang mulai beralih ke batubara kualitas tinggi. Di mana kalau Indonesia mau bersaing ke sana, akan bersaing dengan Amerika Serikat, Rusia dan Kanada,” kata Deon.

Di Asia Tenggara, permintaan ekspor batu bara Indonesia masih tinggi. Akan tetapi, Vietnam yang berhasil meningkatkan transisi energi terbarukan kemungkinan akan dicontoh oleh negara-negara Asia Tenggara lainnya. Sehingga permintaan batu bara dari Asia Tenggara akan menurun di masa depan.

“Sementara itu, saat ini 27 GW dari pembangunan pembangkit listrik batubara masih dilakukan oleh pemerintah. Direktur PLN sendiri pada Agustus 2020 mengatakan saat ini PLTU memasang kontrol polusi untuk upaya penurunan karbon, akan tetapi menggunakan itu PLTU akan mengalami peningkatan biaya operasional,” kata Deon.

Staf Khusus Batu Bara dan Mineral Kementerian ESDM, Irwandy Arif mengatakan 2027 akan menjadi puncak penurunan permintaan batu bara di seluruh dunia. Hal ini menjadi tantangan bagi pemerintah Indonesia sebab saat ini pemerintah sedang menggunakan produk turunan batu bara untuk mengatasi defisit anggaran akibat impor LPG.

“Oleh karena itu saat ini kementerian ESDM sedang menyusun grand strategy komoditas penting energi terbarukan. Faceout-nya batubara itu sangat ditentukan oleh energi terbarukan dan kebijakan menyeluruh yang dirancang pemerintah,” kata Irwandy.

Transisi energi juga dilakukan oleh perusahaan-perusahaan milik negara, misalnya PT Bukit Asam. PTBA melakukan program green airport dengan membangun infrastruktur panel surya. Selain itu, mereka membangun panel surya di beberapa kabupaten.

Coal Exports Decline, Time for Energy Transition

Indonesia's coal export destination countries in Asia have begun switching to renewable energy. According to research by the Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR), the coal industry will suffer losses. Energy transition is the only way to prepare for a decline in exports to Asia.

According to the IESR Data and Information Specialist, Deon Aprinaldo, coal export destination countries such as China and Japan began to commit to zero carbon from 2025 to 2050. This indirectly affected Indonesia's coal export demand.

"Demand from these countries is declining, while Japan has begun to switch to high-quality coal. If we wanted to compete there, we would compete with the United States, Russia and Canada,” said Deon.

In Southeast Asia, the demand for Indonesian coal exports is still high. However, Vietnam, which has successfully improved its renewable energy transition, is likely to serve as an example for other Southeast Asian countries. That way, the demand for coal in Southeast Asia will decline in the future.

"Meanwhile, currently 27 GW of coal power plant construction is still in progress. In August 2020, the Director of PLN said that PLTU has installed pollution controls to reduce carbon, but it will increase the operating costs," said Deon.

Special Staff of Coal and Minerals within Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry, Irwandy Arif, said that 2027 would see the peak of worldwide decline on coal demand. This is a challenge for the Indonesian government because currently, the government is using coal-derived products to handle budget deficit from LPG imports.

"Therefore, currently the ESDM ministry is preparing a grand strategy with regard to important renewable energy commodities. Coal’s face-out is largely determined by renewable energy and the overall policy designed by the government," said Irwandy.

State-owned Companies (BUMN) such as PT Bukit Asam also undergo energy transition. PTBA conducted a green airport program by building solar infrastructure. In addition, they built solar panels in several regencies.

IETD is an IESR and ICEF initiative

 

Institute for Essential Services Reform (IESR)

Jl. Tebet Barat Dalam VIII No. 20B, Jakarta Selatan

Indonesia

General Inquiry: icef@iesr.or.id

P. +62 21 - 22323069

©2020 by Indonesia Clean Energy Forum (ICEF) in association with IESR

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